[Reading level: C1 – Advanced]
In a world where we are constantly bombarded with tales of exceptional success, it’s easy to fall into a mental trap known as survivorship bias. This cognitive fallacy occurs when we focus on successful people or positive outcomes while ignoring those who tried the same path and failed. It distorts our perception of reality and skews our judgment, leading us to overestimate the chances of success. From entrepreneurs who drop out of college and become billionaires to individuals who defy health risks like smoking and drinking, the allure of survivorship bias is omnipresent.
When we think of people like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Mark Zuckerberg, their success stories are often held up as proof that formal education isn’t necessary for success. These tech titans all famously dropped out of university to pursue their dreams, becoming some of the wealthiest individuals in history. Their stories have inspired legions of young entrepreneurs to follow suit, believing that leaving school might be the secret ingredient to success.
However, what these success stories don’t show are the thousands of university dropouts who never made it. For every billionaire college dropout, there are countless others who left university but didn’t build a successful company. They faced financial struggles, failed businesses, or ended up in low-paying jobs. Survivorship bias pushes these stories into the background, leading people to believe that dropping out is a more viable path than it actually is.
The truth is, many of these billionaires had advantages beyond their decision to leave school: access to capital, personal connections, and skills that set them apart from the average person. For example, Bill Gates had the advantage of early access to computers and programming in the 1960s, a time when such technology was largely unavailable to the general public. His mother also served on the board of United Way with IBM’s CEO, which helped him secure a pivotal contract for Microsoft. Meanwhile, Steve Jobs benefited from growing up in Silicon Valley, surrounded by technology and innovation. He partnered with Steve Wozniak, a brilliant engineer, to co-found Apple, leveraging his marketing acumen and vision.
While dropping out worked for them, it’s not a formula guaranteed for everyone. Most successful people remain in school and use the knowledge and connections they gain to move forward in life.
Another prime example of survivorship bias is the anecdotal evidence we hear about people who smoke and drink heavily but still live long, healthy lives. Take, for instance, the oft-repeated stories of famous individuals like George Burns, who smoked cigars and lived to be 100, or Winston Churchill, who was known for his whiskey and cigars but lived into his 90s. These cases are intriguing because they seem to defy scientific evidence linking smoking and drinking to serious health issues. Some people point to them as proof that these habits aren’t as harmful as they are often portrayed. But what we don’t see are the millions of people who suffer from lung cancer, heart disease, and liver problems because of similar habits. The survivors—those who beat the odds—are celebrated, while the many who succumb to the risks are forgotten.
Survivorship bias in health matters can be particularly dangerous because it might lead people to ignore well-established medical advice. Just because someone smoked for decades and stayed healthy doesn’t mean that the average person will experience the same result. In fact, most won’t.
Consider the story of John, a young man who, inspired by stories of billionaire dropouts, left his computer science program in his second year. He believed he was destined to create the next big startup. For years, he tried to launch various tech projects, burning through savings and taking on debt. Without the degree, he struggled to find stable employment when his ventures failed. Ten years later, John looks back and realizes that, while dropping out worked for some, he was not one of the lucky few.
Another example is Sarah, who watched her grandfather smoke cigars for 60 years without facing any health issues. Emboldened by his apparent resilience, she took up smoking in her early 20s, believing the risks were exaggerated. At age 45, she was diagnosed with lung cancer, realizing too late that her chances of remaining healthy were never as high as she thought.
In both John and Sarah’s cases, they fell prey to survivorship bias—focusing on rare success stories while ignoring the larger group who experienced different outcomes.
The key danger of survivorship bias is that it narrows our view of reality, making success seem more accessible and risk less dangerous than it actually is. By focusing only on those who made it through, we forget the many who did not. Whether in career choices, health decisions, or even personal finance, survivorship bias tempts us to take risks that we might otherwise avoid if we had a clearer picture of the odds.
To counteract survivorship bias, it’s important to consider the full range of outcomes, not just the standout successes. When evaluating risks, we need to ask ourselves: What are the stories of those who tried and didn’t succeed? What factors were at play that made one person successful while others failed? Understanding these nuances helps us make more informed decisions and avoid the pitfalls of believing in a skewed version of reality.
WORD BANK:
bombarded with sth /bɑːmˈbɑːr.dɪd/ (adj): bị bao quanh bởi cái gì, tiếp xúc quá nhiều với cái gì
tale /teɪl/ [B2] (n): câu chuyện
exceptional /ɪkˈsep.ʃən.əl/ [B2] (adj): phi thường
survivorship bias /sɚˈvaɪ.vɚ.ʃɪp ˈbaɪ.əs/ (n): thiên kiến kẻ sống sót
cognitive fallacy /ˈkɑːɡ.nə.t̬ɪv ˈfæl.ə.si/ (n): lỗi nhận thức
path /pæθ/ (n): con đường
distort sth /dɪˈstɔːrt/ (v): bóp méo cái gì
perception of sth /pəˈsep.ʃən/ [C2] (n): nhận thức về cái gì
skew sth /skjuː/ (v): làm lệch lạc cái gì
judgment /ˈdʒʌdʒ.mənt/ [C2] (n): phán đoán
entrepreneur /ˌɑːn.trə.prəˈnɝː/ (n): doanh nhân
drop out of school/college (v): bỏ học
defy sth /dɪˈfaɪ/ [C2] (v): coi thường cái gì, thách thức cái gì
allure /əˈlʊr/ (n): sức hấp dẫn
omnipresent /ˌɑːm.nɪˈprez.ənt/ (adj): hiện hữu ở khắp mọi nơi
proof /pruːf/ (n): bằng chứng
tech titan /ˈtaɪ.tən/ (n): ông trùm công nghệ
legions of sb /ˈliː.dʒən/ (quant): rất nhiều người
follow suit (v): làm theo
ingredient /ɪnˈɡriː.di.ənt/ (n): yếu tố (tạo nên thành công)
university/college/school/ dropout /ˈdrɑːp.aʊt/ (n): người bỏ học
viable /ˈvaɪ.ə.bəl/ [C2] (adj): khả thi
capital /ˈkæp.ə.t̬əl/ (n): nguồn vốn
set sb apart (v): khiến cho ai đó khác biệt
board (of management) (n): hội đồng quản trị
pivotal /ˈpɪv.ə.t̬əl/ (adj): quan trọng
brilliant /ˈbrɪl.jənt/ (adj): tài năng
leverage sth /ˈlev.ɚ.ɪdʒ/ (v): tận dụng cái gì
acumen /əˈkjuː.mən/ (n): sự nhạy bén
formula /ˈfɔːr.mjə.lə/ (n): công thức
guarantee /ˌɡer.ənˈtiː/ [B2] (v): đảm bảo
prime example /praɪm ɪɡˈzæm.pəl/ (n): ví dụ điển hình
anecdotal /ˌæn.ɪkˈdoʊ.t̬əl/ (adj): mang tính giai thoại
smoke/drink heavily (v): nghiện nặng (thuốc lá/rượu)
intriguing /ɪnˈtri·ɡɪŋ/ (adj): có tính gây tò mò
portray /pɔːrˈtreɪ/ (v): mô tả
beat the odds (idiom): vượt qua rủi ro
celebrate /ˈsel.ə.breɪt/ [B1] (v): ca ngợi
succumb to sth /səˈkʌm/ [C2] (v): không vượt qua được cái gì
well-established /ˌwel ɪˈstæb.lɪʃt/ (adj): đã được chứng minh lâu nay
venture /ˈven.tʃɚ/ [C2] (n): dự án
embolden sb /ɪmˈboʊl.dən/ (v): khuyến khích ai đó, khiến ai đó trở nên bạo dạn hơn
resilience /rɪˈzɪl.jəns/ [C2] (n): sự kiên cường
exaggerate /ɪɡˈzædʒ.ə.reɪt/ (v): thổi phồng
fall prey to sth (v): rơi vào cái bẫy
make it through (idiom): vượt qua (khó khăn/thử thách)
tempt sb /tempt/ (v): cám dỗ ai đó
counteract sth /ˌkaʊn.t̬ɚˈækt/ (v): chống lại cái gì
nuance /ˈnuː.ɑːns/ (n): sắc thái
make an informed decision (v): đưa ra quyết định sáng suốt
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